A recent study indicates that measles could become endemic in the United States within the next 25 years if current childhood vaccination rates continue to decline. The disease, which was declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000 due to widespread vaccination efforts, has seen a resurgence in recent years, with nearly 900 cases reported in 2025 alone.
The study, conducted by researchers at Stanford University, utilized a computer model to project future measles cases under various vaccination scenarios. At current vaccination levels, the model predicts that the U.S. could experience up to 51 million measles cases over the next 25 years. A 10% decline in vaccination rates could lead to 11.1 million cases, while a 5% increase in vaccination coverage could reduce the number of cases to just 5,800 over the same period.
The resurgence of measles has been particularly evident in West Texas, where a large outbreak has been linked to a community with low vaccination rates. As of April 2025, the outbreak had resulted in over 600 cases and two deaths, marking the first measles-related fatalities in the U.S. in a decade. The affected area includes a Mennonite community known for its vaccine hesitancy, contributing to the spread of the disease.
Health experts emphasize the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent the re-establishment of measles as an endemic disease. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that 95% of children receive the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine to ensure herd immunity and protect vulnerable populations.
To address the declining vaccination rates, public health officials are advocating for increased education and outreach efforts to combat vaccine misinformation and encourage vaccination. They stress that even modest increases in vaccination rates can have a significant impact on preventing future outbreaks and protecting public health.
Related topics:
