Beijing, May 7 (Science and Technology Daily) — A recent paper in the latest issue of Nature reveals a sobering reality: the burden of the climate crisis will fall disproportionately on the younger generation. As the planet continues to warm, the research indicates that those born more recently are set to face a significantly higher risk of extreme climate events throughout their lives compared to their older counterparts.
The study, led by a team from the Free University of Brussels in Belgium, aimed to predict the exposure of different demographic groups to unprecedented extreme events across various climate warming scenarios on a global scale. “Unprecedented” exposure was defined as an extremely low probability event, with odds of less than one in ten thousand in a world without human – induced climate change.
Analysis shows that under a 1.5℃ temperature rise scenario, a staggering 52% of people born in 2020 will be at risk of experiencing an unprecedented heatwave in their lifetimes. In contrast, only 16% of those born in 1960 will face such a threat. If the current mitigation policies continue, which aim for a 2.7 ° C increase in global temperatures by 2100 relative to pre – industrial levels, the exposure risk for those born in 2020 will double compared to the 1960 cohort.
The implications are even more dire when considering higher degrees of warming. Should the global temperature increase reach 3.5℃ by 2100, a whopping 92% of the population born in 2020 will be exposed to an unprecedented heatwave risk.
The research team further expanded their analysis to include five additional climate – related extreme events: crop reduction, wildfires, droughts, river floods, and tropical cyclones, along with heatwaves. Across all these extreme events, they found a clear pattern: the degree of exposure increased markedly with each successive birth year. This means that younger generations are not only more likely to face heatwaves but also other devastating climate – related disasters during their lifetimes.
Despite its valuable insights, the study has its limitations. The analysis did not account for internal population movements within countries, nor did it consider trends in fertility and mortality rates. However, these limitations do not overshadow the core message of the research.
The findings underscore the urgency of taking immediate and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By curbing emissions, we can potentially mitigate the worst – case scenarios for future generations, sparing them from the most severe impacts of the climate crisis. As the world continues to grapple with the challenges of climate change, this research serves as a clarion call to prioritize the well – being of the younger generation, who stand to inherit a world shaped by our current actions or inactions.
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