A new study from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) highlights how early growth patterns in children can signal future risk of obesity. The research, conducted through the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) Program, tracked body mass index (BMI) changes in nearly 9,500 children from infancy to age 9.
Researchers identified two major BMI growth patterns. Most children—about 89%—followed a typical curve, where BMI decreased between ages 1 and 6 before gradually rising again. However, about 11% of children displayed an atypical pattern. Their BMI remained steady from ages 1 to 3.5, then increased rapidly through age 9.
By age 9, children in this atypical group had a significantly higher chance of developing obesity, with average BMIs exceeding the 99th percentile.
The study also linked several early-life factors to obesity risk. These include high birthweight, maternal smoking during pregnancy, high maternal BMI before pregnancy, and excessive weight gain during pregnancy.
“Childhood obesity often begins early and tends to persist into adolescence and adulthood, raising the risk of serious health issues like diabetes and heart disease,” said Chang Liu, PhD, an ECHO researcher from Washington State University. “The fact that we can identify unusual BMI patterns as early as age 3.5 shows how critical early childhood is for preventing obesity.”
The study used data from medical records, caregiver reports, and both in-person and at-home measurements. Liu emphasized that prevention efforts should start early, such as supporting pregnant women in quitting smoking, managing healthy weight gain, and monitoring children for early signs of rapid weight gain.
The findings suggest a clear opportunity for early intervention to help curb the growing epidemic of childhood obesity.
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