Eating more ultraprocessed foods may increase the risk of dying early, according to a new meta-analysis involving more than 240,000 people. The research, published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, shows a nearly 3% rise in the risk of premature death for every 10% increase in calories from ultraprocessed foods.
“We examined the risk of death between ages 30 and 69 and found a clear link,” said study coauthor Dr. Carlos Augusto Monteiro of the University of São Paulo, who created the NOVA food classification system in 2009.
What Are Ultraprocessed Foods?
According to NOVA, foods fall into four groups:
- Group 1: Whole or minimally processed foods (e.g., fruits, vegetables, meat, milk).
- Group 2: Culinary ingredients like salt, herbs, and oils.
- Group 3: Processed foods (e.g., canned goods, frozen meals).
- Group 4: Ultraprocessed foods made from modified ingredients with additives and little to no whole food content.
Monteiro described ultraprocessed foods as “chemically manipulated” and said they may harm the body, especially in high amounts.
Industry Pushback
The Consumer Brands Association, which represents food producers, criticized the findings. Sarah Gallo, senior vice president of product policy, said labeling convenient, affordable foods as dangerous could harm access to essential nutrition and worsen health disparities.
Other Studies Confirm Risks
Earlier studies also found strong links between ultraprocessed foods and serious health problems:
- Up to 50% higher risk of death from heart disease and mental disorders.
- Higher risk of anxiety (53%), obesity (55%), sleep disorders (41%), and type 2 diabetes (40%).
- One 2024 study showed just a 10% increase in ultraprocessed food intake raised stroke and cognitive decline risk.
- Research in 2023 linked the same 10% increase to cancers in the upper digestive tract.
Widespread Consumption
In the U.S., ultraprocessed foods make up about 55% of the average diet. For children, the number is even higher—around two-thirds of their daily calories.
“Roughly 70% of the U.S. food supply is ultraprocessed,” said Dr. Fang Fang Zhang of Tufts University, who was not part of the study.
Global Impact Estimates
The study also estimated the potential number of preventable deaths in eight countries. In the U.S., eliminating ultraprocessed foods could have prevented more than 124,000 deaths in 2017. In Brazil, nearly 25,000 deaths might have been avoided. In Colombia, about 3,000 lives could have been saved.
“Countries with high UPF consumption could see premature deaths ranging from 4% to nearly 14%,” said lead author Eduardo Nilson of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation.
Limitations and Debate
Some experts caution that the findings don’t prove cause and effect. “We can’t say UPFs cause death based on this data,” said Dr. Nerys Astbury of the University of Oxford.
Statistician Stephen Burgess of the University of Cambridge agreed, saying the link could reflect other health factors. “However, repeated associations across countries and cultures are suspicious,” he added.
Dr. Zhang warned that the study’s assumption of zero UPF consumption is unrealistic, possibly overestimating the risks.
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