A new study has found that rising temperatures driven by climate change are linked to an increase in women’s cancer rates and deaths in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Researchers say even small increases in temperature are associated with a notable rise in cases of breast, ovarian, uterine, and cervical cancer.
The findings, published in Frontiers in Public Health, reveal that as global temperatures climb, cancer mortality among women also increases—particularly for ovarian and breast cancers.
“Although the increases per degree are modest, their long-term public health impact is substantial,” said Dr. Wafa Abuelkheir Mataria, the study’s lead author from the American University in Cairo.
Cancer Risk and a Changing Climate
The MENA region is already experiencing some of the world’s fastest warming trends. In this study, researchers analyzed data from 17 countries, including Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, covering the years 1998 to 2019. They looked at the rates of four types of cancer among women and tracked how these rates changed alongside rising temperatures.
They found that for every one-degree Celsius increase in average temperature, cancer prevalence rose by 173 to 280 cases per 100,000 people. Ovarian cancer showed the sharpest increase. Cancer-related deaths also climbed—by 171 to 332 per 100,000—with the highest mortality increase tied to ovarian cancer.
“This suggests temperature is a risk factor,” said co-author Dr. Sungsoo Chun. “But it also points to complex interactions with other environmental and healthcare factors.”
Unequal Impact Across Countries
The link between heat and cancer was not consistent across the region. Only six countries—Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Syria—showed a clear rise in both cancer prevalence and deaths. For example, in Qatar, breast cancer cases rose by 560 per 100,000 people per degree Celsius, while in Bahrain, the increase was 330.
Researchers say this variation may be due to different levels of pollution, healthcare access, or other unmeasured factors.
Women, especially those who are pregnant or marginalized, face higher health risks from climate change due to biological and social vulnerabilities. Limited access to healthcare and early screening means that many women are diagnosed late, when treatment is less effective.
More Than Just Better Screening
While better cancer detection could explain part of the increase in cases, researchers noted that death rates rose as well—something not expected if improved screening were the only cause. This points to greater exposure to cancer risk factors, such as air pollution and toxins.
“Temperature rise likely affects cancer risk in multiple ways,” Chun said. “It increases exposure to carcinogens, disrupts health systems, and may even influence cancer development at the cellular level.”
A Call for Action
Although the study does not prove that rising temperatures directly cause cancer, the consistent trends across multiple countries suggest the need for urgent attention.
“This research should inform public health strategies,” Mataria said. “We need stronger cancer screening, more climate-resilient health systems, and efforts to reduce environmental hazards.”
Without targeted action, researchers warn, the cancer burden linked to climate change will only grow.
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