The research, conducted by economists from the University of California, Merced; the U.S. Census Bureau; and the University of Maryland, highlights how divorce can have long-term effects on children’s lives by disrupting their financial stability, home environment, and family structure.
Divorce Brings Multiple Life Changes
After a divorce, families often see their household income cut in half as parents split into two separate homes. Many move to neighborhoods with fewer resources and lower-quality schools. Children may also lose regular contact with one parent, typically the non-custodial one.
These combined effects — financial loss, neighborhood decline, and reduced parental involvement — account for 25% to 60% of the negative outcomes seen in children after divorce, the researchers said.
“Rather than a single legal event, divorce brings a combination of changes that can each affect a child’s future,” the study noted.
Widespread Experience, Mixed Impacts
Nearly one-third of American children experience their parents’ divorce before reaching adulthood. While many go on to lead successful lives — including public figures like former President Barack Obama and Vice President JD Vance — the broader data suggests early divorce is linked with long-term challenges for many children.
Not all experts agree on the impact of divorce. Some previous studies suggested that staying in unhappy marriages might be worse for children due to constant parental conflict. Others found that divorce generally reduces family income, parental time, and emotional stability for children.
New Data Reveals Clearer Patterns
What makes this new study stand out is its use of linked data from federal tax records, the Social Security Administration, and the Census Bureau. This allowed researchers to follow U.S. children born between 1988 and 1993 from childhood into adulthood.
By comparing siblings who experienced divorce at different ages, the study found children whose parents divorced before age five earned 13% less by age 27 than those whose parents stayed married. However, divorces that happened after a child turned 18 showed little or no impact on future income.
Additional Findings
Parental divorce increased the likelihood of teen pregnancy if it happened before a child turned 15. That risk disappeared by age 20. Divorce also raised the risk of incarceration in early adolescence, but the effect faded in adulthood. There was no noticeable effect on marriage rates by age 25.
The negative impacts of divorce were consistent across racial and socioeconomic groups.
Personal Reflections and Expert Opinions
While the study did not measure emotional consequences, some people who experienced parental divorce said it affected them well into adulthood. Brandon Hellan, 54, said his parents’ divorce in his early 20s left lasting emotional scars that made it difficult for him to commit to relationships.
“It felt like a betrayal,” he said. “It made me treat relationships like they were temporary.”
Philip Cohen, a University of Maryland sociologist not involved in the study, noted that while data can show trends, only parents can fully understand the complexities of their situation. “Parents often weigh the risks of divorce very carefully, both for themselves and their children,” he said.
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